徐鹏程，男，江苏金坛人，现为扬州大学水利科学与工程学院副教授。博士毕业于南京大学水文学及水资源专业。主持国家自然基金（青年基金C类）一项，江苏省自然基金青年项目一项、中国博士后基金面上项目一项、扬州大学科研启动项目一项、扬州市绿杨金凤人才项目一项、以及水利部水科学与水工程重点实验室开放基金两项。近年来，结合多变量频率分析工具Copula函数的优势，在暴雨洪涝干旱极端事件的非平稳风险领域展开了较为深入地研究，相关研究成果也相继发表在Nature Index期刊Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres和水文Top期刊Journal of Hydrology上。自博士阶段以来，以通讯作者或第一作者身份共发表SCI/北大核心论文20多篇。

科研项目

（1）国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目，“非平稳条件下多变量洪水频率分析方法研究-以淮河流域为例”（42301026），2024.01—2026.12，30万，主持。

（2）江苏省青年基金项目，“淮河流域多变量洪水频率非平稳归因及不确定性研究”（BK20220589），2022.07—2025.06，20万，主持。

（3）中国博士后基金项目，“变化环境下城市短历时极端暴雨的非一致性风险分析”（2019M661795），2019.09—2021.06，8万，主持。

（4）水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室开放基金，“长江上游多变量洪水风险的归因与预估研究”（KYFB202307260031），2023.07—2025.06，2万，主持。

（5）水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室开放基金，“气候变化下城市洪涝多维风险评估和管理方法研究”，2020.07—2021.12，4万，主持。

（6）扬州市“绿扬金凤计划”项目（YZLYJF2020PHD088），2022.03—2025.02，主持。

（7）扬州大学高层次人才科研启动费，2021.06—2028.08，主持。

论文发表

（1）Xu, P.C.^*, Zhang, Z.L.^*, Wang, D. ^*, Singh, V.P., Zhang, G.X., Fu, X.L.^*, Yang, H.Y., 2026. Quantitative assessment of the reservoir-induced impact on multivariate flood risk via the nonstationary Vine Copula model. Journal of Hydrology, 669, 134997.

（2）Xu, P.C.^*, Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Singh, V.P., 2026. Quantifying the urbanization and vegetation greening effect on spatiotemporal continuous drought risk via nonstationary C-Vine Copula model. Water Resources Management, 40(1), 1.

（3）Xu, P.C.^*, Yang, H.Y., Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Wang, Q., Ju, X.P., Singh, V.P., Lu, M., 2025. Unraveling the amplified role of urbanization on occurrence likelihood of precipitation extremes through nonstationary model in Huaihe River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 657, 133137.

（4）Xu, P.C.^*, Zhu, T., Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Singh, V.P., Lu, M., Fu, X.L., 2025. Non-synergistic effect of marginal distribution and dependence structure of extremes triggering the future risk of compound dry-hot events in Yellow River, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,39(8), 3187-3200.

（5）Yang, H.Y., Xu, P.C.^*, Wang, D., Singh, V.P., Zhang, Z.L., Lu, M., 2025. Copula-based approach to nonstationary bivariate frequency analysis of short-duration precipitation extremes in Huaihe River Basin, China. International Journal of Climatology, 45(8), e8855.

（6）Xu, P.C.^*, Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Ju, X.P., Singh, V.P., 2025. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration and its rate of contribution to meteorological drought in Mainland China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 30(4), 05025010.

（7）Xu, P.C.^*, Wang, D. ^*, Wang, Y.K. ^*, Singh, V.P., Zhang, Z.L., Shang, X.S., Fang, H.Y., Xie, Y.Y., Zhang, G.X., Liu, S.Y., Fu, X.L.^*, 2024. A dynamic von Mises-based model to evaluate the impact of urbanization and climate change on flood timing in Yangtze and Huhai River Basins, China. Journal of Hydrology, 634, 131120.

（8）Xu, P.C. ^*, Wang, D., Wang, Y.K. ^*, Wu, J.F., Heng, Y., Singh, V.P., Liu, C.M., Wang, L.Z., Shang, X.S., Fang, H.Y.^*, 2024. Quantifying the urbanization and climate change-induced impact on changing patterns of rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency via nonstationary models. Urban Climate, 55, 101990.

（9）Zhang, Z.L., Xu, P.C. ^*, Wang, D., Yang, H.Y., Singh, V.P., Fu, X.L., Fang, H.Y., Zhang, G.X., Liu, S.Y., Qiu, J.C., 2024. Quantifying the flood coincidence likelihood between Huai River and its tributaries considering the nonstationarity. Journal of Hydrology: Regional studies, 54, 101887.

（10）Zhang, W., Xu, P.C.*, Liu, C.M, Fang, H.Y., Qiu, J.C., Zhang, C.S., 2024. Dynamic Bayesian-Network-Based Approach to Enhance the Performance of Monthly Streamflow Prediction Considering Nonstationarity. Water, 16, 1064.

（11）Xu, P.C., Zhang, Z.L., Wang, D., Singh, V.P., Zhang, C.S., Fu, X.L., Wang, L.Z., 2023. A time-varying Copula-based approach to quantify the effects of antecedent drought on hot extremes. Journal of Hydrology, 627, 130418.

（12）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Singh, V.P., Qiu, J.C., Wu, J.C., Zhang, A.L., Ju, X.P., 2023. Dynamic identification and risk analysis of compound dry-hot events considering nonstationarity. Journal of Hydrology, 616, 128852.

（13）Xu, P.C., Wang, Y.K., Fu., X.L., Singh, V.P., Qiu, J.C., 2023. Detection and attribution of urbanization impact on summer extreme heat based on nonstationary models in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Urban Climate, 47, 101376.

（14）Ju, X.P., Wang*, D., Wang, Y.K., Singh, V.P., Xu*, P.C., Zhang, A.L., Wu, J.C., Ma, T., Liu, J.F., Zhang, J.Y., 2023. An entropy and copula-based framework for streamflow prediction and spatio-temporal identification of drought. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 37: 2187-2204.

（15）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Singh, V.P., 2022. A stepwise and dynamic C-Vine Copula-based approach for nonstationary monthly streamflow forecasts. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 27, 04021043.

（16）Xu, P.C., Li, F., Wang, Y.K., Qiu, J.C., Singh, V.P., Zhang, C.S., 2022. Quantitative assessment of climatic and reservoir-induced effects on river water temperature using Bayesian Network-based approach. Water, 14(8), 1200.

（17）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Wang, Y.K., Qiu, J.C., Singh, V.P., Ju, X.P., Zhang, A.L., Wu, J.C., Zhang, C.S., 2021.Time-varying copula and average annual reliability-based nonstationary hazard assessment of extreme rainfall events. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 126792.

（18）Ju, X.P., Wang*, Y.K., Wang*, D., Singh, V.P., Xu*, P.C., Wu, J.C., Ma, T., Liu, J.F., Zhang, J.Y., 2021. A time-varying drought identification and frequency analyzation method: A case study of Jinsha River Basin, Journal of Hydrology, 603, 126864.

（19）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Singh, V.P., Lu, H.Y., Wang, Y.K., Wu, J.C., Wang, L.C., Liu, J.F., Zhang, J.Y., 2020. Multivariate hazard assessment for nonstationary seasonal flood extremes considering climate change, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032780.

（20）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Singh, V.P., Lu, H.Y., Wang, Y.K., Wu, J.C., Wang, L.C., Liu, J.F., Zhang, J.Y., 2020. Copula-based seasonal rainfall simulation considering nonstationarity. Journal of Hydrology, 590, 125439.

（21）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Singh, V.P., Wang, Y.K., Wu, J.C., Wang, L.C., Zou, X.Q., Liu, J.F., 2018. A kriging and entropy-based approach to raingauge network design. Environmental Research, 161: 61-75.

（22）Xu, P.C., Wang, D., Singh, V.P., Wang, Y.K., Wu, J.C., Wang, L.C., Zou, X.Q., Chen, Y.F., Chen, X., Liu, J.F., Zou, Y., He, R.M., 2017. A two-phase copula entropy-based multi-objective optimization approach to hydrometeorological gauge network design. Journal of Hydrology, 555: 228-241.

（23）徐鹏程，刘楠楠，李 帆，仇建春，张昌盛，戴笠， 2023. 多变量洪水非平稳频率分析方法研究：以淮河流域蚌埠水文站为例. 中国农村水利水电，6，1-9.

（24）徐鹏程，李 帆，张昌盛，仇建春，2023. 基于C-Vine Copula 熵多目标优化模型的水文气象站网优化研究. 中国农村水利水电，2，16-21.

（25）徐鹏程，张志浪，刘春明，方红远，王磊之，2025. 基于Vine Copula 模型的淮河干支流洪水遭遇分析. 中国农村水利水电, (12)：12-18+26.

专利授权

（1）徐鹏程; 仇建春,李帆,等.基于高维Copula熵和克里金的站网优化方法. 专利号：ZL 202210040869.3.

（2）王栋; 徐鹏程; 王远坤; 等. 基于克里金法和信息熵理论耦合的水文站网优化方法. 专利号：ZL 201710532961.0.

（2）王栋; 徐鹏程; 王远坤; 等.一种基于Copula熵的水文站网优化模型的优化方法. 专利号：ZL 201710126728.2.

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